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“Property Rights, Fiscal Capacity, and Social Capacity: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion”
with Lixin Colin Xu and Li Yang
Forthcoming at Journal of Economic Growth
[ Abstract | Draft | Slides | Data ]
Media Coverage: [ Quantitative History (in Chinese) ]
We examine the long-term regional development effects of the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864), one of the deadliest civil wars in human history and a critical juncture in China's path toward modernity. Our analysis shows that some areas under the control of the Taiping regime experienced important institutional changes, including stronger land property rights, greater local fiscal capacity, and enhanced social capacity. We find that these areas exhibit enduring development outcomes, reflected in higher economic activity, larger fiscal revenues, stronger civic norms, and lower mortality during the Great Famine (1959–1961). The results suggest that violent conflicts have left lasting imprints on development by shaping local institutions in ways that influenced the evolution of property rights, fiscal capacity, and social cohesion, factors that could account for China's enduring regional disparities.
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“Anti-Corruption and Political Trust: Evidence from China”
with Ming Fang and Congling Xia
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 234, June 2025
[ Abstract | Draft ]
How can anti-corruption efforts influence political trust in government? We investigate this question through the lens of China’s recent anti-corruption campaign, launched in 2013, which has disclosed many corruption investigations to the public for the first time. By analyzing a large individual panel dataset, we show that, on average, the campaign has reduced political trust, particularly among groups less informed about corruption before the campaign. We document strong heterogeneity in changes in political trust, possibly driven by prior political attitudes, as captured by previous unpleasant experiences with the government, pro-government indoctrination, and Confucian norms. Our results fit a model in which polarization is rationalized by different priors about the government. We also rule out several alternative explanations for our findings.
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“China’s Anticorruption Campaign and Civil Servant Fever”
with Xun Li
Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 67, No. 2, May 2024
[ Abstract | SSRN | Non-technical Summary | Data ]
What is the impact of anticorruption efforts on entry into bureaucratic jobs? This paper approaches the question theoretically and empirically through the lens of China's anticorruption campaign instituted in 2013. We leverage a novel data set of national civil service exams. Exploiting assignment and timing variations in anticorruption inspections of government departments, our difference-in-differences estimate shows that a department had significantly fewer applicants following an inspection. We provide evidence that the decline in bureaucratic entry has occurred since the campaign lowered the (expected) returns from bureaucratic jobs by improving the detection of corruption and constraining power that is likely to be abused. In contrast, we do not find evidence that the campaign affected legal income. Furthermore, simulation exercises suggest that after the anticorruption campaign, incoming bureaucrats may have lower ability but higher prosociality than before.
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“The Effect of Education on Voter Turnout in China’s Rural Elections”
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 221, May 2024
[ Abstract | Draft ]
Conventional wisdom and evidence from democracies suggest that more education should increase voter turnout. This paper revisits this issue by analyzing turnout in China's rural elections. Employing an instrumental variable strategy, I find that more education reduces turnout in rural elections. I provide suggestive evidence that more educated people may face higher opportunity costs of voting, which explain about a quarter of cross-province variation in education-turnout links. I also discuss the role of other factors, including Confucian culture and election stakes.
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“Housing Market Regulations and Strategic Divorce Propensity in China”
with James Alm and Xun Li
Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 35, July 2022
[ Abstract | SSRN | Slides ]
Media coverage: [ Caixin (in Chinese) ]
In China’s regulated housing markets, a married couple may choose strategically to divorce in order to purchase more houses and/or purchase with more favorable financial conditions. Our study examines the propensity for strategic divorce induced by housing market regulations in China. To overcome the difficulty of using conventional divorce data to distinguish between a “true” divorce and a strategic (or a “fake”) divorce, we design an identification strategy using data on internet searches for divorce- and marriage-related keywords in 32 Chinese major cities from 2009 through 2016. Our difference-in-differences estimates provide robust evidence that housing market regulations significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce. Our results also show that the increase in the propensity for strategic divorce is weaker in cities with higher male–female ratios and with stronger Confucian ideologies. These findings point to the role that housing market regulations play in distorting a family’s choices, as well as to the importance for policymakers to consider unintended impacts of regulations.
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“Role of Professional Bureaucracy in the Policy Response to COVID-19: Does a Public Health or Medical Background Help?”
with Xun Li, Qianqian Wan, and Xi Chen
China Economic Review, Vol. 71, February 2022
[ Abstract | IZA DP | GLO DP | SSRN ]
Media coverage: [ IZA Opinions ]
In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there have been substantial variations in policy response and performance for disease control and prevention within and across nations. It remains unclear to what extent these variations may be explained by bureaucrats' professionalism, as measured by their educational background or work experience in public health or medicine. To investigate the effects of officials' professionalism on their response to and performance in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, we collect information from the résumés of government and Party officials in 294 Chinese cities, and integrate this information with other data sources, including weather conditions, city characteristics, COVID-19-related policy measures, and health outcomes. We show that, on average, cities whose top officials had public health or medical backgrounds (PHMBGs) had a significantly lower infection rate than cities whose top officials lacked such backgrounds. We test the mechanisms of these effects and find that cities whose officials had a PHMBG implemented community closure more rapidly than those lacked such backgrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of professionalism in combating the pandemic.
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“Migrant Integration and Social Stability”
with Yu Qiu
[ Abstract ]
Societies around the world grapple with how to design migrant integration policies, amid concerns about these policies' impacts on social stability. This paper examines the causal link between migrant integration policy and social stability. We analyze the effect of China's 2014 reform of its restrictive internal migration system on migrant labor unrest (e.g., strikes and protests), exploiting a discontinuity in reform eligibility. We find that by offering migrants a pathway to obtaining full rights in host societies, the reform reduced labor unrest. We show that the reform strengthened migrants' intentions to settle in their destinations, thereby weakening their incentives to engage in labor unrest that could undermine their chances of staying due to employer or government retaliation. We develop a novel causal mediation analysis and show that settlement intentions can account for 26--63 percent of the reform's effect on labor unrest. We find no evidence that the reform altered migrant composition, improved migrants' well-being, or prompted governments to tighten social control. Our findings highlight the role of migrants' endogenous responses to migration regimes in shaping the social consequences of migration.
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“The Intergenerational Effects of Early-Adulthood Adversity”
[ Abstract ]
This paper studies the long-term occupational effects of China's Cultural Revolution (1966--76, CR), which involved a strong sense of dislike towards professionals. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that individuals whose fathers experienced higher levels of violence during the CR are less inclined to pursue professional occupations. However, I do not observe a significant impact of mothers' exposure. Furthermore, there is limited evidence that the CR led to constraints hindering access to professional jobs in terms of human capital, family environment, and local economic conditions. I find patterns consistent with a model of preference transmission within families. Additionally, I provide evidence indicating that the dislike towards professional occupations may persist in the third generation, especially in the patriarchal line.
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“Geopolitical Tensions, Economic Opportunities, and Political Responses: Evidence from Japan”
with Yu Qiu
(Draft coming soon!)
[ Abstract ]
Geopolitical tensions may reallocate economic opportunities across countries. We study the economic and political impacts of such shifts, drawing upon the Korean War (1950--1953), one of the most intense geopolitical conflicts in recent history. We show that US military procurement in Japan during the Korean War led to employment growth, labor relocation, and increases in labor productivity in Japan. Meanwhile, we present suggestive evidence that military procurement reduced support for parties opposed to Japan's rearmament and military alliance. Our findings suggest that geopolitical tensions may generate economic opportunities for some countries and influence domestic political discourse.
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“Feudalism and Democracy: Evidence from Weimar Germany”
with Kartikeya Batra, Arseniy Braslavskiy, and Ethan Kaplan
