About Me

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• I’m a fifth-year Ph.D. student in economics at the University of Maryland. Prior to Maryland, I studied economics and mathematics at Wuhan University. My CV is here. My email address is laiwz@umd.edu.

• My research interest spans political economy, personnel economics of the state, and Chinese economy. I’m also broadly interested in other applied research topics.

Research

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Published or Accepted for Publication

1. “China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign and Civil Servant Fever”
   with Xun Li
   accepted by Journal of Law and Economics
   [ Abstract ]

   What is the impact of anti-corruption efforts on entry into bureaucratic jobs? This paper approaches this question theoretically and empirically through the lens of China's anti-corruption campaign since 2013. We leverage a novel dataset of national civil service exams. Exploiting assignment and timing variations in anti-corruption inspections on government departments, our difference-in-differences estimate shows that a department had significantly fewer applicants following an inspection. We provide evidence that the decline in bureaucratic entry has occurred since the campaign lowered the (expected) returns from bureaucratic jobs by (i) improving corruption detection and (ii) constraining power likely to be abused. In contrast, we do not find evidence that the campaign affected legal income. Furthermore, simulation exercises suggest that after the anti-corruption campaign, incoming bureaucrats may have lower ability but higher prosociality than before.
   
   

2. “The Effect of Education on Voter Turnout in China’s Rural Elections”
   Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol.221, May 2024
   [ Abstract | Working Paper ]

   Conventional wisdom and evidence from democracies suggest that more education should increase voter turnout. This paper revisits this issue by analyzing turnout in China's rural elections. Employing an instrumental variable strategy, I find that more education reduces turnout in rural elections. I provide suggestive evidence that more educated people may face higher opportunity costs of voting, which explain about a quarter of cross-province variation in education-turnout links. I also discuss the role of other factors, including Confucian culture and election stakes.
   
   

3. “Housing Market Regulations and Strategic Divorce Propensity in China”
   with James Alm and Xun Li
   Journal of Population Economics, Vol.35, July 2022
   [ Abstract | SSRN | Slides ]
   Media coverage: [ Caixin ]

   In China’s regulated housing markets, a married couple may choose strategically to divorce in order to purchase more houses and/or purchase with more favorable financial conditions. Our study examines the propensity for strategic divorce induced by housing market regulations in China. To overcome the difficulty of using conventional divorce data to distinguish between a “true” divorce and a strategic (or a “fake”) divorce, we design an identification strategy using data on internet searches for divorce- and marriage-related keywords in 32 Chinese major cities from 2009 through 2016. Our difference-in-differences estimates provide robust evidence that housing market regulations significantly increase the propensity for strategic divorce. Our results also show that the increase in the propensity for strategic divorce is weaker in cities with higher male–female ratios and with stronger Confucian ideologies. These findings point to the role that housing market regulations play in distorting a family’s choices, as well as to the importance for policymakers to consider unintended impacts of regulations.
   
   

4. “Role of Professional Bureaucracy in the Policy Response to COVID-19: Does a Public Health or Medical Background Help?”
   with Xun Li, Qianqian Wan, and Xi Chen
   China Economic Review, Vol.71, February 2022
   [ Abstract | IZA Opinions | IZA DP 14710 | GLO DP 1002 | SSRN ]

   In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there have been substantial variations in policy response and performance for disease control and prevention within and across nations. It remains unclear to what extent these variations may be explained by bureaucrats' professionalism, as measured by their educational background or work experience in public health or medicine. To investigate the effects of officials' professionalism on their response to and performance in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, we collect information from the résumés of government and Party officials in 294 Chinese cities, and integrate this information with other data sources, including weather conditions, city characteristics, COVID-19-related policy measures, and health outcomes. We show that, on average, cities whose top officials had public health or medical backgrounds (PHMBGs) had a significantly lower infection rate than cities whose top officials lacked such backgrounds. We test the mechanisms of these effects and find that cities whose officials had a PHMBG implemented community closure more rapidly than those lacked such backgrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of professionalism in combating the pandemic.
   
   

Working Papers

1. “Human Capital Development under Trade Conflict”
   with Xun Li
   [ Abstract | SSRN ]

   This paper studies the impact of China-US trade war on human capital development in China, as captured by college major choice. We conduct both theoretical and empirical analyses. The simple model indicates that information signaling better prospects for STEM graduates can push high ability students toward STEM majors. Our empirical investigation leverages novel, detailed data on college admission statistics. We document an increased gap in admission cutoffs between STEM and non-STEM majors after the trade war broke out in 2018, implying a shift of high ability students toward STEM majors. This increase in the cutoff gap is more pronounced in provinces highly exposed to additional US tariffs. We offer evidence that the behavioral change in major choice is due to career considerations based on observed advantages of STEM graduates or attention to STEM-favorable national development plans, rather than nationalistic responses to the nation's call for tech self-sufficiency.
   
   

2. “Anti-Corruption and Political Trust: Evidence from China”
   with Ming Fang and Congling Xia
   submitted
   [ Abstract ]

   How can anti-corruption efforts influence political trust in government? We investigate this question through the lens of China's recent anti-corruption campaign, launched in 2013, which has disclosed many corruption investigations to the public for the first time. By analyzing a large individual panel dataset, we show that, on average, the campaign has significantly reduced political trust, particularly among groups less informed about corruption before the campaign. We document strong heterogeneity in changes in political trust, possibly driven by a pro-and-anti-government cleavage, as captured by previous unpleasant experiences with the government, pro-government indoctrination, and Confucian norms. Our results fit a model in which polarization is rationalized by different priors about the government. We also rule out several alternative explanations for our findings.
   
   

3. “Adverse Experience and Occupational Outcomes: Evidence from Children of the Cultural Revolution”
   [ Abstract ]

   This paper studies the long-term occupational effects of China's Cultural Revolution (1966--76, CR), which involved a strong sense of dislike towards professionals. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that individuals whose fathers experienced higher levels of violence during the CR are less inclined to pursue professional occupations. However, I do not observe a significant impact of mothers' exposure. Furthermore, there is limited evidence that the CR led to constraints hindering access to professional jobs in terms of human capital, family environment, and local economic conditions. I find patterns consistent with a model of preference transmission within families. Additionally, I provide evidence indicating that the dislike towards professional occupations may persist in the third generation, especially in the patriarchal line.
   
   

4. “Property Rights, State Capacity, and Social Capacity: The Lasting Impacts of the Taiping Rebellion”
   with Li Yang and Colin Xu
   reject & resubmit at Journal of Economic Growth
   [ Abstract ]

   We study the impacts on development of the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864), one of the deadliest civil wars in human history and a key turning point of China toward modernity. We find that the rebellion experience, on the margin, had positive impacts in some areas, as captured by a range of outcomes, including better land property rights, improved local fiscal capacity, enhanced social capacity, stronger political efficacy, as well as fewer deaths during the Great Famine (1959-1961). We also find empirical support for the complementarity between state capacity and social capacity. The results suggest that the effects of violent conflicts on local state capacity and social capacity could partly explain large within-country variation in development.
   
   

Work in Progress

1. “Foreign Economic Relations and Domestic Politics: The Case of Taiwan” (draft coming soon!)
   [ Abstract ]

   How do foreign economic influences shape domestic politics? I study this question leveraging the unique settings of Taiwan, where exports heavily rely on the Chinese market, and the major political cleavage is relations with mainland China. Using a shift-share design, I find that townships with more exports to mainland China vote less for the Democratic Progressive Party, the major party that unequivocally supports Taiwanese independence. I offer suggestive evidence that interested voters may worry about losing economic benefits brought by exports to mainland China and so avoid choices likely to cause tensions. I do not detect impacts on party identification, identity, and attitudes toward unification or independence.
   
   

2. “Industrial Labor Relations in Urban China”
   with Yu Qiu